[Steve The Stock Guy · Week of May 4, 2026 · ElevenLabs Adam voice · deadpan-comedy financial commentary]

This is Steve. Steve The Stock Guy. Welcome to your week-of-May-4 trade map. Hellcat, Katie, listen up. The print of the week is AMD on Tuesday after close. The print of the WORLD is Donald Trump telling Iran "no thanks" to a peace deal at four a.m. eastern. We live in remarkable times.

Let's go around the table.

Trump rejected Iran's offer about five hours ago. He looked at the proposal like it was a Yelp review for a restaurant he already hates. The blockade stays. Brent crude is bouncing between a hundred and eight and a hundred and twenty-six dollars like it's a basketball at a fourth-grade gym class. Gas is four dollars and twenty-two cents a gallon. The tape doesn't care. The tape is at all-time highs because the tape has been TRAINED on three years of buy-the-geopolitical-panic, and it now considers war a leading indicator. Truly a special moment in financial history.

Onto AMD. Lisa Su prints Tuesday after the bell. Consensus is nine point eight four billion in revenue, up thirty-two percent year over year, EPS of one dollar thirty. AMD's own guide is nine point eight billion. Translation: the company told us, the analysts agreed, and the stock has already moved. The average analyst price target is three hundred dollars, which is BELOW the current price. That is a rare moment of Wall Street humility. Cathie Wood — Cathie, our patron saint of buying the top — sold seventy-nine point nine MILLION dollars of AMD ahead of the print. When Cathie Wood is selling AI, you check the smoke detectors.

Katie, you said AMD is priced in. Katie is right. The trade is not the print. The trade is the Wednesday morning reaction. Wait the thirty minutes. Trade the direction. Don't be a hero on a number that is already in the chart.

Palantir. Monday after close. Wall Street wants one point five four billion in revenue, up SEVENTY-FOUR percent. EPS up ONE HUNDRED FIFTEEN percent. The stock trades at a hundred times earnings, which is fine if your earnings keep TRIPLING. The options market is pricing a ten percent move either direction. PLTR is two trades on one ticker: the AI growth story, and the Peter Thiel power story.

Speaking of which. Peter Thiel. Does he run the world. The honest answer is: he runs more of it than anyone outside the executive branch. Palantir has one point three billion in federal contracts since the inauguration. ICE bought a master database for a billion. The IRS bought one for a hundred and thirty million. Thiel mentored the Vice President, paid for his Senate run, and brokered his VP nomination. So no, he doesn't run the world. But the federal data layer? He kind of owns the operating system. Which means PLTR Monday is a referendum on whether one hundred times earnings is the price you pay for the data layer of the surveillance state. That's not me being dramatic. That's just the trade.

Tesla. Three hundred ninety bucks. Down twenty percent from the December high. Deliveries off eight and a half percent. The bag-holders are calling it consolidation. The chart is calling it a bleed. Money is leaving Tesla and entering AVGO, ANET, VRT, ORCL, and Micron. This is the rotation. Don't fight it. Don't catch the knife. Don't short the squeeze. Just leave it alone like a haunted toaster.

Micron. M.U. Up seventy percent year-to-date. HBM3E sold out. HBM4 sold out. They are out of memory until twenty twenty-seven. That is not a stock, that is a national strategic asset with a ticker symbol. Are you late? Depends on whether you think AI compute is going to less than DOUBLE from here. If you do, you're late. If you don't, you're early on the way to a hundred bucks higher. The price target on the street is now five hundred and twenty-three. Twenty twenty-six revenue is going to print seventy-six billion. This is the picks-and-shovels of the picks-and-shovels.

Quick history lesson. Twenty eighteen, Trump's first trade war, market recovery took eighty-one days. Twenty twenty COVID, recovery one hundred three days. Twenty twenty-five tariff tantrum, fifty-five days. Twenty twenty-six Iran shock, ten-day recovery for nine point eight percent. Each crisis recovers faster than the last because the market has now been trained that the dip is a buying opportunity. This is either the greatest market regime in history or it is a coil that is about to be the greatest unwind in history. Probably both, in that order.

Friday is non-farm payrolls. Consensus seventy-three thousand. Above a hundred K, the AI rip continues. Below fifty K, we are talking about cash and energy. Plan accordingly. The Fed held three and a half to three point seventy-five with FOUR dissents — the most divided Fed in over thirty years. June cut odds collapsed to five percent. The era of "the Fed will save us" is now the era of "the Fed cannot agree what time it is."

Hellcat. Batman. Katherine Clark, Real Queen. Last week you held a bear coil through negative two thousand bucks intraday and walked out plus one thousand seven hundred. That's the trade I want you to remember when AMD prints Tuesday and your hand wants to move. The hand that does not move is the hand that gets paid.

This is Steve. Day trade only. Flat by one p.m. Pacific. Cash by close. NFP is binary — don't be cute. And if Peter Thiel buys the building, just keep your head down, and short the rent.

Out.